Trends in Causes of Adult Deaths among the Urban Poor: Evidence from Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System, 2003–2012. Journal of Urban Health, March 2015.
Authors: Blessing Mberu, Marylene Wamukoya, Samuel Oti, and Catherine Kyobutung
In this paper, we examine the trends in the causes of death among the urban poor in two informal settlements in Nairobi by applying the InterVA-4 software to verbal autopsy data. Over the 10-year period, the three major causes of death are tuberculosis (TB), injuries, and HIV/AIDS, accounting for 26.9, 20.9, and 17.3 % of all deaths, respectively. In 2003, HIV/AIDS was the highest cause of death followed by TB and then injuries. However, by 2012, TB and injuries had overtaken HIV/AIDS as the major causes of death. When this is examined by gender, HIV/AIDS was consistently higher for women than men across all the years generally by a ratio of 2 to 1. In terms of TB, it was more evenly distributed across the years for both males and females. We find that there is significant gender variation in deaths linked to injuries, with male deaths being higher than female deaths by a ratio of about 4 to 1. Emerging at this stage is evidence that HIV/AIDS, TB, injuries, and cardiovascular disease are linked to approximately 73 % of all adult deaths among the urban poor in Nairobi slums of Korogocho and Viwandani in the last 10 years. While mortality related to HIV/AIDS is generally declining, we see an increasing proportion of deaths due to TB, injuries, and cardiovascular diseases. In sum, substantial epidemiological transition is ongoing in this local context, with deaths linked to communicable diseases declining from 66 % in 2003 to 53 % in 2012, while deaths due to noncommunicable causes experienced a four-fold increase from 5 % in 2003 to 21.3 % in 2012, together with another two-fold increase in deaths due to external causes (injuries) from 11 % in 2003 to 22 % in 2012. It is important to also underscore the gender dimensions of the epidemiological transition clearly visible in the mix. Finally, the elevated levels of disadvantage of slum dwellers in our analysis relative to other population subgroups in Kenya continue to demonstrate appreciable deterioration of key urban health and social indicators, highlighting the need for a deliberate strategic focus on the health needs of the urban poor in policy and program efforts toward achieving international goals and national health and development targets.
