Kristin Aunan, Terje K. Berntsen, Gunnar Myhre, Kristin Rypdal, David G. Streets, Jung-Hun Woo, Kirk R. Smith,
Radiative forcing from household fuel burning in Asia, IN: Atmospheric Environment, Available online 5 August 2009, ISSN 1352-2310,(http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VH3-4WXSK5G-1/2/4434bb9837d75457e1a220b5e1c05eaa)
Household fuel use in developing countries is a major source of carbonaceous aerosols and other air pollutants affecting climate. Using a state-of-the-art emission inventory, a global three-dimensional photochemical tracer/transport model of the troposphere, and a global radiative transfer model, we estimate the radiative forcing (RF) attributable to household fuel combustion in Asia in terms of current global annual-mean RF and future global integrated RF for a one-year pulse of emissions (2000) over two time horizons (100 and 20 years). Despite the significant emissions of black carbon (BC) aerosols, our estimates indicate that short-lived (non-Kyoto) air pollutants from household fuel use in the region overall may exert a small net negative RF because of the strong influence of reflective aerosols. There are, however, major uncertainties in emission estimates for solid fuel burning in household stoves. Moreover, the sustainability of fuel wood harvesting in Asia (the carbon neutrality of harvesting) is largely unknown. Due to these uncertainties we find that the sign of the RF from household biomass burning in the region cannot be established. We discuss the implications of our modeling exercise in context of the discussion on whether the number of radiatively active species in future treaties should be expanded beyond those specified in the Kyoto Protocol. While recognizing the need for integrating climate change and air pollution policies, we are concerned that for a `Kyoto style’ post-Kyoto treaty (with global cap-and-trade and the Global Warming Potential as the metric) expanding the basket of components with a selection of short-lived species without also including the wider range of co-emitted species may lead to unintended consequences for global-scale climate.
